Tuesday, April 28, 2009

2009 Draft Surprises

As usual, things didn't go according to the experts' plans on Draft Weekend, but there were several things that surprised me. It started from the first pick, and followed through to the end of the second day. Some were based on preconceived draft notions, others were shockers as they happened.

1. Matthew Stafford going #1 overall
-While this wasn't a surprise to most, I am still not on the Stafford bandwagon. Scouts love his "live arm" and plethora of starts at the collegiate level, but I still don't see how that alone translates to NFL success. When Stafford was off his game at Georgia, the team's offense was anemic, even with first-round pick Knowshon Moreno in the backfield. In fact, during his three years at Georgia, Stafford played with current and future NFL talents at wide receiver, running back, tight end and offensive line, but still couldn't take his team to an SEC East title. Forget a national or conference championship, is a division title too much to ask for?

While the move to draft Stafford is a view for the future, it could also be a political tactic. By drafting a quarterback, that gives the Lions organization at least three years of more excuses, because you can always say, "Stafford hasn't developed yet." If they drafted a lineman, fans could still demand more wins next year. Now they can only say their number one overall pick needs more time.

2. The Chiefs taking Tyson Jackson at #3
-While Kansas City is switching to a 3-4 defense, I still see this as a reach. Jackson will play the five-technique, which is the defensive end on the line, part defensive tackle, part pass rusher. Jackson might be a good fit for the position at 300 lbs., but I would also make the argument that it is the least important position in the defensive scheme. A 3-4 needs a huge, space-eating defensive tackle in the middle, and fast, outside linebackers to get to the quarterback. Five-technique defensive ends essentially need to be 300+ lbs., and able to occupy offensive tackles or guards so the linebackers can get around the edge. The Chiefs need personnel at both defensive tackle and outside linebacker, and were in a position to take Aaron Curry or B.J. Raji, but passed. I was surprised the Chiefs didn't take either of those players, with a view to take a five-technique end later, which can typically be found in the second day of the draft.

3. The Jets trading up to #5 for Mark Sanchez
-I am again going against the grain of the experts by not being a huge fan of Sanchez. While he was a good quarterback at USC for one season, I still don't see how that warrants a top-five selection. I think far too much credit is given to USC's "pro-style" offense. Sure he takes snaps from under center instead of in the shotgun, but that still doesn't mean the offense was good last year.

When Sanchez first declared for the draft, he was blasted by both his coach, Pete Carroll, and draft pundits who said he needed to go back for his senior year because quarterbacks who leave school early are not ready to start in the NFL. He was pegged as the clear second-ranked quarterback in the class, with no chance to beat out Stafford for top billing. He was projected to be a top-25 pick, at best, and would likely need to sit a year before seeing regular season action.

Being a junior, he was not eligible for post-season all-star games or organized activities, and needed to rely solely on the combine and his Pro Day workout at USC. By not playing in a single game between January and April, Sanchez moved himself from a late first-round pick, to a top-five selection. How?

Sanchez was a redshirt junior, who sat behind Matt Leinart, who had a much better resume for scouts to examine. Leinart won two national championships, a Heisman trophy, and stayed for his senior year.

After Leinart, Sanchez still couldn't beat out John David Booty, a one-and-done starter for the Trojans, who was a fifth-round pick in last year's draft, and has not seen NFL action since.

I still fail to see how a one-year college starter, who could not beat out a future NFL also-ran, declares for the draft, doesn't play for three months, but then skyrockets up draft boards, to the point where a team will trade first- and second-round draft picks, as well as three other players, to go get him at pick number five.

Sanchez talks a great game, and marketed himself very well, I just don't see the same thing everyone else does. I think he will be good, not great, and will need more than a year to develop, especially if he starts right away. As for USC's "pro-style" offense that prepares quarterbacks for the NFL so well? Leinart is a backup for the Cardinals and Booty is fourth on the depth chart after the Vikings traded for Sage Rosenfels in the offseason.

4. Oakland passing on Michael Crabtree for Darrius Heyward-Bey at #7
-Crabtree was widely considered the top receiver in this draft, and although he had a stress fracture in his foot, he was expected to be the first pass catcher off the board. While it is known that Raiders owner Al Davis loves speed and combine measurables, many thought he would take an offensive tackle or a wide receiver, either Crabtree or Jeremy Maclin. Heyward-Bey was considered the fourth- or fifth-best receiver in this draft, projecting him as a late first-round pick. Instead, Davis fell in love with Heyward-Bey's 4.30 40-yard dash time, the fastest of anyone at this year's combine. Crabtree landed nearby, falling to San Francisco at #10. Ay bay bay.

5. Brian Orakpo falling to the Redskins at #13
-After his impressive workouts, Orakpo was thought by many, myself included, to be a sure-fire top-10 pick. While the Mark Sanchez trade re-shuffled the deck, I still expected Orakpo to be the first pass rusher off the board. However, with Tyson Jackson gone with the third pick and Buffalo selecting Aaron Maybin at #11, the possibility loomed that Orakpo would be around at #13. With the Broncos needing 3-4 personnel, I thought Orakpo could be gone at #12, but Denver went with Knowshon Moreno instead. With Orakpo still shockingly on the board, Washington wasted no time, using about 45 seconds of their alotted 10 minutes to make its selection.

6. Rey Maualuga falling to the 2nd round
-I made a prediction before the draft that there was no chance Brian Cushing would be taken ahead of Rey Maualuga. It turns out Maualuga was the last picked of the three USC linebackers expected to be taken in the first round, with Maualuga slipping out of the first round altogether. Cushing went 15th to the Texans, while Clay Matthews went 26th to the Packers. Maualuga went to the Bengals in the second round, 38th overall.

There was speculation, but no confirmation, that Maualuga has a torn hamstring, which could have hurt his draft stock. Regardless, Maualuga was projected to be a top-15 pick, and to see him available in the second round baffled me.

Thursday, April 23, 2009

2009 NFL Mock Draft

1. Detroit Lions-Jason Smith, OT Baylor
-While Matthew Stafford is projected by most the be the top overall pick in this year’s draft, I don’t consider him an elite prospect, and I’m not sure Detroit is convinced either. While Stafford has a strong arm, his decision making is questionable. The Lions re-upped QB Daunte Culpepper and could look for him to get them through another season. The Lions could look at this situation as though they will be in a similar spot next year, so they might wait until a better quarterback crop comes along next season.

Detroit needs help everywhere after officially recording the worst season in NFL history, finishing 0-16. With two first-round picks, Detroit can make some headway in a number of areas, but the lines should be the priority. With Matt Millen out of the way, this franchise needs to put a gameplan together bring respectability back to the Lions. The best way to do that is to find a cornerstone of the line to protect your quarterback. Last year’s first-round pick, Gosder Cherilus, was a step towards building the offensive line, but that’s not enough.

Baylor offensive tackle Jason Smith is a prospect with a lot of upside, who could start immediately at left tackle. A former tight end, Smith has excellent footwork and continues to improve as an all-around player. His downside is he’s raw, coming from a spread system in college. He never lined up in a three-point stance, so his technique needs work, but his work ethic is relentless and enjoys his work. His quote at the combine of taking pride "in physically assaulting someone" on a football field spoke volumes of his desire for the game and the type of player he wants to become.

2. St. Louis Rams-Eugene Monroe, OT Virginia
-Opinions differ on who the best tackle prospect in this draft, whether it’s Jason Smith or Virginia’s Eugene Monroe. Monroe appears to be a much more polished player at his position. He was good enough to keep Kansas City’s 2008 first-round pick Branden Albert at guard while he was at UVA, and he now starts at left tackle for the Chiefs. Monroe is a better pass protector than Smith, but Smith might have the edge in run blocking. Smith is stronger, but Monroe has great footwork that keeps him from getting beat and is very quick. While Smith has more room for growth, Monroe is a better fit to start right away, but has less potential. Therefore, it’s a choice between taking a solid prospect versus taking a chance on a player who could be an All-Pro, but might fall flat.

With Jason Smith off the board, it makes the selection easier for St. Louis. As much as the Rams throw the ball, they might be better suited to take Monroe anyway. The Rams have serious problems at offensive tackle, as right tackle and former first-round pick Alex Barron has been less than stellar to say the least, and former All-Pro tackle and long-tenured Orlando Pace was cut. The Rams need a tackle in the worst way, probably worse than they need a wide receiver. The Rams cut long-time deep threat Tory Holt, but the emergence of Donnie Avery and the versatility of running back Steven Jackson, can ease that concern. St. Louis needs quarterback protection, and are in prime position to pull the trigger here.

3. Kansas City-Aaron Curry, LB Wake Forest
-With new management coming to Kansas City to turn the franchise around, there are many different directions they could go with this pick. The Chiefs are a young squad and have good pieces, but need to develop. After trading for QB Matt Cassel and LB Mike Vrabel from the Patriots, there are a couple of areas covered with quarterback, running back Larry Johnson, offensive tackle Branden Albert, wide receiver Dwayne Bowe, linebackers Derrick Johnson and Vrabel and cornerback Brandon Flowers. The Chiefs could look defensive line or linebacker here, as the addition of defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast could see Kansas City switch to a 3-4. Last year’s first-round pick Glenn Dorsey might not be a fit there, and edge rushers would be needed as well.

Wake Forest LB Aaron Curry has been deemed "the safest pick in this draft" and could play any linebacker position in any system. While I’m not an advocate of saying any pick is bust-proof, Curry would make sense here and he could start right away if he’s everything he’s cracked up to be. His versatility could be very useful if Kansas City moves between schemes and if he’s the top-rated player on their board, he’s an easy pick at number three.

4. Seattle Seahawks-Matthew Stafford, QB Georgia
-Most mocks have Stafford going first overall to Detroit, but there’s still no guarantee he’ll be their selection. Stafford has a strong arm and has been compared to Jay Cutler, but his decision making has been knocked and there is a concern that he isn’t ready to be the starter on day one because he left school a year early. However, his talent level is there, and perhaps a year of observing from the sideline would do him just right.

Seattle will be looking towards the future as they move on from the Mike Holmgren era and begin the Jim Mora Jr. regime. That could start with a new franchise quarterback. Matt Hasselbeck will be 34 when the season starts and could be ending his career in the next couple years. Stafford could be the guy to step in immediately after Hasselbeck is gone. If Stafford falls out of the top spot, he won’t slip very far. The Seahawks would get great value with this pick, even though it doesn’t plug an immediate hole. This would be a pick for the future, not the present.

5. Cleveland Browns-Brian Orakpo, DE Texas
-I’ve seen plenty of mock drafts with B.J. Raji landing at this spot. Why? The Browns just traded third-and fifth-round picks for Shaun Rogers last year to be the anchor of their 3-4 scheme at nose tackle. Raji is the exact same kind of player. The Browns need pressure off the edge as well as secondary support in coverage. A seemingly perfect fit for pressure on the quarterback is Brian Orakpo, the workout warrior from Texas. Orakpo projects to be either a DE in a 4-3 or a rush end in a 3-4. He could start immediately for the Browns. However, don’t forget new head coach Eric Mangini selected last year’s combine phenom Vernon Gholston with the Jets in the first round, which has turned out to be a bust so far. Mangini might be timid to do the same, but Orakpo doesn’t disappear in games the way Gholston did at Ohio State.

6. Cincinnati Bengals-B.J. Raji, DT Boston College
-The Bengals have plenty of needs, ranging from offensive and defensive line, to wide receiver. The Bengals are apparently shopping Chad Ochocinco, after turning down the Washington Redskins draft day offer of two first-round picks for him last year. Wide receiver is an issue with the departure of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, but the signing of Laveraneus Coles and selection of wide outs in previous drafts makes it a secondary need.

Offensive line, specifically tackle, should be addressed early, but with two tackles already gone, it’s not good value to take the third-rated tackle with the sixth pick.

Boston College DT B.J. Raji is a good fit here. He’s the top defensive tackle in this year’s draft, and worked with head coach Marvin Lewis at the senior bowl, where Raji absolutely dominated. Keep in mind the Bengals were in the mix for USC DT Sedrick Ellis last year, before New Orleans traded up to get him. Cincinnati still needs help there, so Raji will be difficult to pass up.

7. Oakland Raiders-Jeremy Maclin, WR Missouri
-The Raiders need to look at several areas of concern before making this pick, but owner Al Davis, doesn’t usually like to operate that way. Oakland needs an offensive and defensive tackle, wide receiver and possibly a safety. There’s no safety worth taking here, and with B.J. Raji off the board, defensive tackle is out of the question as well. That would narrow the choices to wide receiver or offensive tackle Andre Smith.

Davis likes flashy picks, particularly prospects with speed. Smith doesn’t really fit that mold, so wide receiver becomes the trendy prediction here. Those familiar with Davis’ rationale say he’s obsessed with the 40-yard dash time, which hurts Michael Crabtree’s chances, since he didn’t run the 40 at the combine or his pro day. Even though he is the top receiver in this draft, that might drop him in favor of Missouri’s Jeremy Maclin, who can return kicks, in addition to lining up out wide and in the slot as a receiver.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars-Michael Crabtree, WR Texas Tech
-The Jaguars have a major need here, and it has been delivered with a bow on top. Crabtree is on top of many teams draft boards and the fact he’s available at #8 is reason enough to take him. The Jags need an offensive tackle, but taking the third rated tackle at #8 is mediocre value compared to landing a top flight receiver. They still haven’t gotten a replacement for Marcus Stroud, who they traded to the Bills last year, so defensive tackle is a concern, but with B.J. Raji off the board, there is no one else in the discussion this early.

WR Reggie Williams didn’t workout as they hoped when they selected him in the first round in 2005, Matt Jones didn’t workout as a first-round pick either, and has been cut following a cocaine charge. High-priced free agent Jerry Porter was injured and has since been cut, so receiver is again a serious need for this team. If Crabtree is still on the board here, there is no way they can pass.

9. Green Bay Packers-Everette Brown, DE Florida St.
-With the Packers switching to a 3-4 defense, personnel need to be brought in right away. Aaron Kampman is being asked to move to edge rusher in this scheme, so Green Bay should be looking at acquiring someone who is a natural fit at that position. Everette Brown is regarded as possibly the best 3-4 rusher in this draft and can get pressure on the quarterback. The Packers might take a look at offensive line by replacing departed tackle Mark Tauscher, but not having defensive players to fit the new scheme would derail the season in a hurry.

10. San Francisco 49ers-Andre Smith, OT Alabama
-Many mocks have the 49ers taking USC QB Mark Sanchez here because of the woes this franchise has suffered since bombing on Alex Smith in 2005. However, the philosophy of head coach Mike Singletary needs to be taken into account here for this pick. Singletary is a defensive-minded, tough coach. He wants to turn this team into a run-first, grind-it-out team. Therefore, QB becomes less of a concern at this point. Right now, the focus of this team is toughening up both lines to pound the competition and control the clock. Immediately, that turns the attention to Alabama tackle Andre Smith. Although his workouts haven’t gone as planned and his screw ups in interviews and at the combine have hurt his stock, Singletary could see the opportunity to mold an individual. Don’t forget how he ripped tight end Vernon Davis last year, but continued to work with him throughout the season. Singletary could do the same thing here. Smith’s game tape is undeniable, and with the right motivator, he could be dominant.

11. Buffalo Bills-Robert Ayers, DE Tennessee
-Ayers is moving up draft boards faster than any other prospect this year, enough so that I’m bumping Penn State’s Aaron Maybin from this pick. Ayers is a good fit in a 4-3 scheme, as he’s big enough to pressure the quarterback with the bull rush and handle the run. Maybin is lighter than Ayers, but both are bulking up so if the Bills decide defensive end is their choice at #11, they’ll have their pick of several high-quality end prospects.

By trading left tackle Jason Peters to Philadelphia, they now have two first-round picks, so the Bills could address DE later in the round, possibly with a player like Larry English. However, the word coming from Buffalo’s camp, is they won’t be looking to replace Peters’ left tackle spot with this pick. Expect them to promote from within and build on the other side of the ball, both on the defensive line and the secondary.

12. Denver Broncos-Mark Sanchez, QB USC
-After trading quarterback Jay Cutler, the Broncos have to be looking to replace him immediately. Kyle Orton will not be taking this team to the Super Bowl anytime soon, so if USC’s Mark Sanchez is still on the board, he should be the selection here. Orton could push Sanchez during his rookie year, until Sanchez is ready to take over full-time.

The entire defense is a huge concern, as Denver moves to a 3-4 and need personnel in each department. However, the Broncos now have two first-round picks after the Cutler deal, so they could begin to address the issue then. Sanchez will not last till pick 18, but a five-technique DE like Tyson Jackson could. Therefore, it would be wise to pull the trigger on a QB now and pick from the plethora of DEs six spots later.

13. Washington Redskins-Michael Oher, OT Ole Miss
-The Redskins have been all over the map during this draft process. They have offered this pick, as well as players and future picks, for Jay Cutler, but were beaten out by the Bears. Owner Dan Snyder is reportedly enthralled with Mark Sanchez, and is considering moving up to get him. There has been talk of offensive tackle, possibly Andre Smith or Ole Miss’ Michael Oher. The USC linebackers have been discussed, specifically Rey Maualuga and Brian Cushing. Defensive end is also a need, and that list is extensive. Right now, Washington’s biggest need is the offensive line. The line as a whole is old, injured, and desperate for an upgrade. Defensive end could be a committee, combining late-round picks with returning veterans Phillip Daniels and Renaldo Wynn. Strongside linebacker needs an upgrade, but that could be found later in the draft or when more cuts are made around the league.

The Redskins need immediate help at right tackle, and will need to replace left tackle Chris Samuels in a few years. The wise choice would be to make an investment now with Michael Oher. He could start right away at right tackle, and then transition to left tackle when Chris Samuels begins to decline. While Oher has been described as a "boom or bust" prospect, he’s no more risky than selecting Rey Maualuga to transfer to strongside linebacker, or taking Brian Cushing, who has a history of injuries. Rumors are circulating that Snyder loves USC QB Mark Sanchez and is prepared to trade up for him. While you'd be moving up to get what you think is a franchise quarterback, it doesn’t matter who it is if there’s no line to protect him. A great quote from Trey Wingo on NFL Live, "No quarterback has ever completed a pass from his back."

14. New Orleans Saints-Malcolm Jenkins, DB Ohio St.
-Some teams don’t know whether to call Malcolm Jenkins a cornerback or a safety. Luckily for the Saints, they need both. Jenkins should get a shot at starting cornerback, but if he fails, he could easily make the transition to safety, as scouts fear he is more of a read-than-react-type of coverage man.

Offense shouldn’t be a main concern for New Orleans, but the release of Deuce McAllister does create a need for a big back to complement the speed of Reggie Bush, who is not an every down runner. Still, as much as Drew Brees throws the ball, defense should be the focus of this team to avoid the need for shootouts every Sunday. Besides, a power back can be found in the second round or early in the second day.

15. Houston Texans-Chris "Beanie" Wells, RB Ohio St.
-Steve Slaton played very well as a rookie last year, but didn’t get help from Ahman Green, whose career appears to be over. The Texans still need a power back to complement Slaton, and could use this pick to snag a physical runner to give them an inside-outside attack. Chris "Beanie" Wells and Knowshon Moreno are regarded as the top backs in this draft, Wells the bigger, tougher runner, and Moreno, the elusive, versatile back. Wells could be what Green never amounted to in Houston and give them some relief, not having to rely so heavily on wide receiver Andre Johnson.

16. San Diego Chargers-Tyson Jackson, DE LSU
-The Chargers are again one of the most talented teams in the league, on paper. Although they haven’t translated that to on-the-field success, they are deep in many positions and can draft luxury items, rather than reach for a player based on need. In this case, the Chargers get a blessing of a great talent, falling to them in an area of need. With the departure of Igor Olshansky in the offseason, the Chargers could use a down end, five-technique lineman in their 3-4 scheme. LSU’s Tyson Jackson fits the bill and more. At nearly 300 pounds, Jackson is a great run stuffer on the end and can move to tackle in passing situations. He is very athletic for his size and can take space against his blockers, allowing edge rushers, like the returning Shawn Merriman, to get to the quarterback.

17. New York Jets-Josh Freeman, QB Kansas St.
-The Brett Favre experiment didn’t work out and was over after one year, leaving the Jets in the same spot as last offseason, in need of a quarterback. Former second-round pick Kellen Clemens hasn’t been handed the job by new head coach Rex Ryan, leaving the door open for competition. If they don’t see him as the future of their franchise, it might be time to look in that direction now.

In the mold of Daunte Culpepper, Josh Freeman is an enormous prospect with an arm to match. At nearly 6’6", 250 lbs., Freeman has the physical tools to succeed in the NFL, but is inexperienced, leaving Kansas State early and not polishing his skills to their ability. However, Freeman shows all the promise of a future star, and brings the big arm they loved from Favre last year. Rex Ryan has spent the offseason building his defense to run the 3-4 the way he wants, so now might be time for him to focus on the offensive side of the ball.

18. Denver Broncos (from Chicago Bears)-Aaron Maybin, DE Penn State
-The Broncos would love for Tyson Jackson to fall this far, but with him being gone, they would like to add a piece to their newly-formed 3-4 defensive scheme. The Broncos need everything, from the entire line, to linebackers. Aaron Maybin is an end with a great first step, who could fit as an end in a 4-3 or a rush linebacker in a 3-4.

The Broncos could look at a number of options here, but will probably stay in the area of down end or rush linebacker with this pick. They just don’t have enough proper personnel on that defense to go into the season with what they have.

19. Tampa Bay Bucs-Rey Maualuga, LB USC
-This scenario works out nicely for the Bucs as they can fill a big need at middle linebacker. After cutting long-tenured, future Hall of Famer Derrick Brooks, Tampa Bay is still looking for his replacement. Rey Maualuga could start immediately at the center of that defense, and his all-out, hard-hitting style of play fits perfectly with the Bucs' brand of football.

Quarterback is also an issue, with the release of Jeff Garcia this offseason, and no named starter yet. They have plenty of quarterbacks on the roster, however, and the recent signing of Byron Leftwich could push a decision on this to a later date, especially with three quarterbacks in a weak class already gone at this point.

20. Detroit Lions (from Dallas Cowboys)-Brian Cushing, LB USC
-The Lions need help in all areas, so this pick could go in any number of directions. However, since they need to plug holes all over the defense, why not select a versatile linebacker who can help you in many of those areas? USC’s Brian Cushing can play all linebacker positions, and has played defensive end, as well as a hybrid-strong safety. Cushing could be moved around to accommodate the Lions needs before settling on a specific position when the team becomes viable again.

21. Philadelphia Eagles-Knowshon Moreno, RB Georgia
-The Eagles would like to replace both of their starting tackles from last year, but traded one of their two first-round picks for former Bills LT Jason Peters, so I don‘t expect them to trade for and draft a tackle with both picks. They need a capable backup for "Mr. Questionable" Brian Westbrook, and Knowshon Moreno fit’s the criteria, with similar elusiveness, as well as the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.

22. Minnesota Vikings-Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR Maryland
-The Vikings need a QB to be a Super Bowl contender, but they won’t upgrade over Tarvaris Jackson by selecting the fourth-best QB of a weak class in the first round. In addition, they traded for Houston Texans’ backup Sage Rosenfels, who could challenge for the starting spot. Darrius Heyward-Bey blew scouts away by running the fastest 40-yard dash time at the combine. Heyward-Bey can give more options in the passing game as well as be a return specialist.

23. New England Patriots-Clay Matthews, LB USC
-With Tom Brady back, the Patriots should be good to go on offense, with Randy Moss, Wes Welker and the addition of Joey Galloway. A running back could be possible here, but with Beanie Wells and Knowshon Moreno off the board, there isn’t much value. The linebacker corps of their 3-4 scheme needs to be revamped, especially after trading away Mike Vrabel. Clay Matthews is the type of player Bill Belichick loves, a hard-working walk-on with an NFL pedigree who gives everything he has. Matthews might be the best in coverage of the three USC linebackers going in the first round, he could rush off the edge with Vrabel gone and Adalius Thomas gets into his mid-30s.

24. Atlanta Falcons-Larry English, DE Northern Illinois
-The previous selection for the Falcons was tight end Brandon Pettigrew here, but today’s trade for former Chief Tony Gonzalez changes things a bit. Atlanta turned things around in a major way after the Michael Vick debacle, finding a new franchise quarterback in Matt Ryan as a rookie. While their offense was clicking, and should be upgraded with Gonzalez, the defense could use assistance getting to the quarterback. Former first-round pick Jamal Anderson has just two sacks in two seasons, and doesn’t appear to be the player they expected. The Falcons could also use a run-stuffing nose tackle to replace the departed Grady Jackson, but that could be found in later rounds.

Here, Atlanta could be focused on helping defensive end John Abraham. Northern Illinois’ Larry English is a similar player who could still be available. English is a strong defensive end, offsetting his smaller size for the position. His college sack total was impressive, albeit against inferior competition. English has been identified as one of this year’s most underrated prospects by Todd McShay, ESPN’s draft expert who has the sharpest tie in the business, so English could be a great find here.

25. Miami Dolphins-Percy Harvin, WR Florida
-Harvin’s stock has been sliding since it was released that he tested positive for marijuana at the NFL combine. He could fall even further than this if Miami doesn’t take him, but his talent is extremely useful for their offense. Harvin has experience in the spread offense, and was utilized as a quarterback several times, similar to how the Dolphins use the "Wildcat" formation. Harvin can be used as a running back, slot receiver, vertical threat, as well as kick and punt returner. The Dolphins need a receiver, as well as someone who can add wrinkles to their trick plays. Harvin’s versatility could be persuasive enough to bring him to Miami, if they feel his off-the-field issues will not be a problem down the road.

26. Baltimore Ravens-Vontae Davis, CB Illinois
-This is a tough call for the Ravens, who are among the league’s best at drafting. They have been known to draft the best player available, but have also found players to fit their system. They could use a receiver, but have been content to leave the load off Joe Flacco’s shoulders and spread the pressure among their three running backs. The defense has been the hallmark of Baltimore football, so don’t be surprised if you see them go in that direction, especially with the departure of CB Chris McAlister, LB Bart Scott, as well as defensive coordinator Rex Ryan.

Baltimore could look at cornerback, with last year’s starting combo of McAlister and Samari Rolle, not active in those roles anymore. Vonte Davis, brother of 49ers tight end Vernon Davis, has all the measurements of a prototypical NFL cornerback, but hasn’t showed the instincts scouts would like to see. Baltimore could see an opportunity to bring him in and let him learn behind mentors such as Ed Reed and Ray Lewis, giving him time to pick up the nuances of the game.

27. Indianapolis Colts-Peria Jerry, DT Ole Miss
-The Colts have been run over the past few years and need help at defensive tackle. Wide receiver could be a dark horse after Indy cut future Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison, but the Colts may have planned for that when they drafted Anthony Gonzalez a couple years ago. Peria Jerry is the best DT after BJ Raji, and plays with a different style. While Raji is a space stuffer with excellent strength, Jerry gets pressure up the middle with his quickness and technique. Jerry would fill a major need for the Colts.

28. Buffalo Bills (from Carolina through Philadelphia)-Brandon Pettigrew, TE Oklahoma State
-Word has come out of Bills camp that they will not replace left tackle Jason Peters with the picks they received for him. The Bills could use a tight end, and many mocks had them taking Brandon Pettigrew with the 11th pick. Now that they have two first-round picks, they would love to see him fall the to then end of the first round. Pettigrew is regarded as the top tight end in an underwhelming class, mostly because of his all-around game. While South Carolina’s Jared Cook is a more athletic player, who specializes in the passing game, Pettigrew runs crisp routes and is a much better blocker. Therefore, Pettigrew is a solid, three-down player, who can be used in all formations.

With a suspension looming for running back Marshawn Lynch, the Bills could focus heavily on their passing game next year. After signing Terrell Owens, the Bills could also add a tight end to maximize their options for a young Trent Edwards.

29. New York Giants-Hakeem Nicks, WR UNC
-This pick has been entirely dependent on the Plaxico Burress situation. Without Burress, the Giants are a completely different team, and Eli Manning becomes a much more pedestrian quarterback. Their running game and offensive line are solid, although the loss of Derrick Ward could see the G-Men picking a running back in later rounds. With Burress gone, the Giants will need to invest in the wide receiver position yet again, despite taking Sinorice Moss, Steve Smith and Mario Manningham the past three years. After cutting ties with Amani Toomer, that position is a weakness without their #1 and #2 receivers of last season.

The Giants stacked their defensive line by adding former Dallas Cowboy, Chris Canty, and Osi Umenyiora will return from a torn lateral meniscus that kept him from playing all of last year. Defensive line will probably not be touched in this class. Drafting a linebacker could also be an option, as the Giants haven’t successfully replaced Kawika Mitchell following their Super Bowl-winning season in 2007-8.

30. Tennessee Titans-Alex Mack, C Cal
-The Titans have several needs for playmakers on both sides of the ball. Wide receiver has been an issue that has been overlooked for the past few drafts, and the departure of Albert Haynesworth to the Washington Redskins could require upgrades for both the defensive line and the secondary, who thrived off pressure from just a four-man rush. However, the Titans do like Jason Jones as a potential replacement for Haynesworth, and they could pass on cornerbacks until the second day.

Center Kevin Mawae is becoming ancient and could be viewing retirement after this year. University of California-Berkeley center Alex Mack is one of the best to come along in some time, and his versatility could allow him to play guard until Mawae is gone. The Titans are a team that loves to build through the trenches, even if it means leaving talent lacking on the outsides. Receiver could be an option here but with five already off the board here, the value is decreased. Unless the Titans fall in love with Rutgers WR Kenny Britt, don’t be surprised to see them stick with the lines here.

31. Arizona Cardinals-Connor Barwin, LB Cincinnati
-After a dream run to the Super Bowl last year, the Cardinals are back to build on a successful season. The big question for this pick is, "Will Anquan Boldin be on the roster?" Boldin has been demanding a new deal since last year and publicly expressed his displeasure with the organization. If Boldin is gone, the Cardinals have showed they can go on without him, but would likely need to add other pieces, like another running back or receiving tight end. If he is there, the Cards should look at upgrading the defense.

While Arizona did make it to the Super Bowl, it wasn’t enough to save defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast’s job, so expect an investment in a few areas before the draft is over. With a solid secondary, the defensive line could use improvements, building around DT Darnell Dockett. Defensive end is a concern, and unless last year’s second-round pick, DE Calais Campbell, has a break-out season, the Cardinals will have whiffed on DT Gabe Watson, DT Alan Branch and Campbell in consecutive years. While it would be painful to use another high pick on those positions, they could take a different approach and go for speed over size. Cincinnati’s Connor Barwin could be a sleeper with this pick, as a big, speedy outside linebacker with the ability to play defensive end. He clocked a 4.47 at the combine and could be the disruption needed from the edge in the Cardinals’ scheme.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers-Eben Britton, OT Arizona
-Look for Oregon C Max Unger to possibly be this pick as well. The Steelers have glaring concerns on their offensive line, despite winning the Super Bowl last season. Tackle Marvel Smith departed in free agency, and Willie Colon and Max Starks are not long-term solutions, after franchising Starks and tendering Colon. Center and guard could use improvements as well, which makes Unger a possibility because of his ability to play anywhere on the interior of the line.

Eben Britton would be a good pickup here because of his ability to play on both the left and right sides. As the best of the second tier of tackles, Britton projects to be a solid player at the next level, no matter which side you put him on. The Steelers will likely be in the same position at tackle next year if they don’t address it in this draft, so it would be better to have someone in the system before that time comes. Unger would be a nice selection, but will probably be available in the second round if the Steelers would like to move up to get him. If not, there are other skilled centers in this draft and guards can be found much later than the first round.

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Windy City Dries Eyes of Crybaby


Hey! Wake up little guy! You're moving to Chicago!

The saga NFL Network termed "McJay-Gate" has finally come to an end, after rivers of tears, heavy doses of midol, close insulin monitoring, and the pouting of a 17-year-old girl who wasn't asked to prom. Former Denver Broncos quarterback, Jay Cutler, has been traded to the Chicago Bears along with a 2009 fifth-round draft choice for 2009 and 2010 first-round picks and a 2009 third-round pick.

Sources, always anonymous, "close to the situation" say Washington was a major player until the last minute, when Chicago swooped in and topped the offer. The Redskins were prepared to mortgage their future, just like last year with Chad Ocho Cinco, offering two first-round picks and current quarterback Jason Campbell. The sources say the Broncos didn't want Jason Campbell, preferring Kyle Orton, which is why the deal fell apart.

Redskins fans, please trust me, this is a blessing in disguise. From experience, I can tell you there is nothing worse than a soft southerner with diabetes. If Cutler can act like that in Denver, he can act like that in Washington. Instead of using the failed Matt Cassel trade as motivation to better himself and prove his worth to his new coach, he folded up shop and reverse-manifest destinied his way East.

Fans in D.C. are all too aware of the short fuse Redskins owner Dan Snyder has with players and coaches, and all it could take is one or two rough seasons before he's looking at other options for starting quarterback. Snyder showed he has no problem being open about it, as he publicly put Campbell on the trading block, and tried to package him in the move for Cutler. When the trade failed, he brought Byron Leftwich in for a tryout. He previously ditched Brad Johnson for Jeff George, and George was gone within a year after that. What's to say Snyder wouldn't have done the same with Cutler? Apparently all it takes is a whisper for Cutler to throw a tantrum, so what happens when he hears about the Colt Brennan phenomenon in D.C.?
What the Redskins desperately need, is to rebuild both of their lines. That wasn't going to happen if two first-round picks were traded away, maybe a third-round pick as well. By hanging on to those picks (for now), the Skins can draft an offensive tackle and a defensive lineman with those first-round selections. They could pick up an interior offensive lineman with the third-round choice as well.

The Redskins have loaded up on defense and have a heavy run game installed in the offense. While quarterback is important, it's more important that he's provided protection with an improved line. If the Skins stay as they are for next season, it won't matter who the quarterback is, he'll be on his back constantly.

Campbell is in a contract year. He can play lights out and get an extension if he shows he's your franchise guy. If he falls flat, you can let him walk with no penalty. Keeping those first-round picks will benefit this team down the road, if used properly, and the Redskins can get younger on both sides of the ball. While Cutler was the flashy choice, he would have come at too big of a price. The Redskins should be happy they were able to get away from this one. They should take a page out of Cutler's book, stay away from the sweets.